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30/09/2024

September 2024 seems to have broken with the usual downward trend of this month, traditionally the weakest in terms of equity market returns. The MSCI All Country gained 2.2%* over the period, bringing its year-to-date performance to +17.2%*. First, China stood out with the Hang Seng index soaring +17.5%* (+24 YTD%*) following the Party’s announcements of a wide range of measures to support its economy. Europe followed suit with some reservations. The Eurostoxx 50 gained 0.9%* (+10.6% YTD*), driven mainly by a stronger rebound in sectors with high exposure to China, such as luxury goods. The US market, supported by the Fed's announcements of rate cuts, appreciated by 2%* for the S&P 500 (+20.8% YTD*) and by 2.7%* for the Nasdaq (+21.2% YTD*). In Japan, the Nikkei corrected by 1.9%* (+13.3% YTD*), dragged down by the success of Shigeru Ishiba, raising fears of a policy of rate hikes and a stronger yen. The surprise in September came from China, where the Communist Party took the markets by surprise by announcing a series of unprecedented measures aimed at reviving a struggling economy. Several aspects were mentioned: a 20-point cut in the key rate (the first since 2020) and a 50-point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks. This latter reduction, which determines the proportion of deposits that banks must hold, should allow commercial banks to lend more to companies to support the real economy. China will also cut interest rates on existing home loans, affecting 50 million households and 150 million people. This reduction is intended to stimulate consumption and investment. Lastly, in order to stem the fall in property prices, restrictions on access to property in many major cities, such as Canton, Shenzhen and Shanghai, have been lifted.
R-co Valor gained 4.4% in May (C share), bringing its year-to-date performance to +15%. Among the negative contributors over the month, healthcare stocks suffered the most, impacted in particular by their defensive nature, which is generally neglected by investors during periods of euphoria. At the same time, the technology sector stood out as the top contributor. Beyond a simple sector reading, it is interesting to note that the five biggest contributors to performance over the period were Chinese stocks, in descending order: Alibaba, CATL,Trip.com, Kingdee and Ping An. Moreover, China has been the largest contributor to the fund’s performance since the beginning of the year by geographical region. In March, the equity component of the fund was stable at 70%. We took advantage of the decline in the luxury goods sector at the beginning of the month to strengthen LVMH. We also bought pharmaceutical company Astrazeneca. We continued to build the position in AES as the utilities sector should benefit from an environment of falling interest rates. At the same time, we took profits by reducing some Chinese companies such as Trip.com, Vipshop, Alibaba and Tencent. Copper miner Ivanhoe Mines was also reduced as minerals generally rebounded on hopes of a Chinese recovery.