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30/06/2024

The equity markets posted mixed performances over the month, with marked divergences by geographical region. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained +3.5%*, driven in particular by its technology stocks (Nasdaq +6%*). Eurozone equities experienced increased volatility in June due to the parliamentary elections in France. Against this backdrop, the Euro stoxx 50 and the CAC40 corrected by -1.8%* and -6.4%*, respectively. China was down, still suffering from anaemic macroeconomic data, with the Hang Seng posting a performance of -2% over the month. For the first time since 2019, the ECB cut rates in June, setting its low range at 3.75%. This move, anticipated by the market, comes in a context of inflation having fallen below 3% in recent months. The Fed, for its part, is struggling with a particularly resilient economy and a solid labour market. The consensus estimates a 70% probability of a first rate cut by the central bank in September. Donald Trump has gained a significant lead over current US President Joe Biden in the race for the White House since the two candidates debated in late June. Following this event, the Republican candidate, according to polls, took a lead of several points over the Democratic candidate. It seems that his own side has turned their back on him, and they have until 19 August to announce a new candidate. There are several possible replacements within four months of the election: Vice President Kamala Harris; Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer; California Governor Gavin Newsom... or Michelle Obama, who, although she said she was not interested, would lead Trump 50% to 39% according to polls.
R-co Valor corrected by -1% in June (C share), bringing its year-to-date performance to +8%. Among the negative contributors, Chinese stocks stood out, impacted in particular by weak domestic demand data. The portfolio also suffered on its more cyclical part, such as Airbus and Ivanhoe. The mining company was affected by the correction in copper prices over the month but remains largely in positive territory since the beginning of the year, with a performance of +47%. As for the aircraft manufacturer, it fell after announcing a revised delivery forecast for 2024 from 800 to 770 aircraft, mainly due to supply chain issues. At the same time, the technology sector stood out as the best contributor alongside more defensive healthcare stocks. In June, the equity portion of the fund remained relatively stable at 67.7%. However, there was some buying. We participated in Alstom’s capital increase, bringing the position to 1.5% at the end of the month. We added to Airbus on weakness, with the conviction that the company will be able to overcome its supply chain problems in the medium term. Lastly, we continued to build up our position in Filo Corp, a copper mining project in South America.