Marc-Antoine COLLARD, Chief Economist, Head of Economic Research, Asset Management, Europe
Until recently, most market participants anticipated a rebound in global economic growth in H2 2019 that would last until 2020, thanks in part to the easing of Sino-US trade tensions. Yet, once again, US President Donald Trump demonstrated his unpredictability by not only announcing a rise in tariffs on some Chinese imports, but also by opening a new front for his trade wars, this time with Mexico. Overall, risks to the economic outlook are firmly on the downside, as evidenced by the sharp decline in sovereign bond yields, as well as the weakening of business confidence. But to what extent can trade tensions affect global economic growth?
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